For young parents, primary school registration can be one of the most competitive events of their parenting lives. We have all heard tales or know of people who have moved to stay near the primary school of their choice or volunteered countless hours as alumni in order to secure a place for their child.
We take a deeper look into HDB property prices near primary schools and find out if they really cost more.
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Changes To How To Calculate The Distance Between School And Home
The Ministry of Education (MOE) recently made changes to how the Home-School Distance (HSD) is calculated. From the 2022 primary school registration exercise, the HSD would be calculated based on the school’s land boundary instead of the single reference point that has been used previously. With this new calculation, most schools will see a slight expansion of their intake zones. Cedar Primary School, Marymount Convent School and Maris Stella High School are exceptions and would continue to use the old single-point reference for the 2022 registration exercise.
For non-parents, the intake zone matters because it affects the priority during the various phases of primary school registration with the highest priority given to Singapore Citizens living within the 1-km intake zone.
Many property watchers are already predicting a price increase for flats located near the boundary zone which would be included under the 1-km intake zone. However, is this true – do HDB property prices really cost more when they are located near popular primary schools?
Are HDB Flats More Expensive When They Are In The 1-KM Intake Zone?
Note: As of 13 September 2021, the OneMap School Query service contains information accurate as of September 2021 for registration of children for admission 2023.
Using OneMap’s School Query, we would look at the boundary between the 1-km intake zone and the 1- to 2-km intake zone for the 3 schools that will be keeping the old HSD calculation for the 2022 registration exercise. These schools are Cedar Primary School, Marymount Convent School and Maris Stella High School.
We then analyse the past one-year HDB transactions to track the actual prices to see if being within the 1-km intake zone makes a difference in the prices. For consistency, we would be only looking at 4-room resale flat transactions. As far as possible, we would compare HDB blocks in the same estate with similar remaining leases with sufficient resale volume.
As these boundary radii would also cover private estates and commercial areas, we would only pick one HDB area per school for this analysis.
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Cedar Primary School
Block 122, 123, 128, 133 to 137, 139 to 142 Potong Pasir Ave 1/3 VS 124 to 127, 129 to 132, 138 Potong Pasir Ave 1/3.
All these blocks are within the 1-km intake zone for Cedar Primary School and also St Andrew’s Junior School.
| Block | Storey | Floor Area (sqm) | Lease Commencement | Resale Price | Resale Registration Date | 1-km intake zone |
| 141 | 01 to 03 | 103 | 1984 | $585,000.00 | Aug-21 | Y |
| 142 | 10 to 12 | 104 | 1984 | $650,000.00 | Jul-21 | Y |
| 136 | 07 to 09 | 106 | 1984 | $595,000.00 | Jun-21 | Y |
| 141 | 01 to 03 | 111 | 1984 | $610,000.00 | Jun-21 | Y |
| 136 | 07 to 09 | 104 | 1984 | $580,888.00 | May-21 | Y |
| 136 | 04 to 06 | 104 | 1984 | $585,000.00 | May-21 | Y |
| 137 | 07 to 09 | 104 | 1984 | $580,000.00 | Mar-21 | Y |
| 140 | 04 to 06 | 106 | 1984 | $560,000.00 | Mar-21 | Y |
| 136 | 07 to 09 | 106 | 1984 | $589,000.00 | Feb-21 | Y |
| 122 | 19 to 21 | 103 | 1984 | $510,888.00 | Feb-21 | Y |
| 136 | 07 to 09 | 104 | 1984 | $588,000.00 | Nov-20 | Y |
| 140 | 10 to 12 | 106 | 1984 | $585,000.00 | Oct-20 | Y |
| 138 | 01 to 03 | 111 | 1984 | $557,000.00 | Mar-21 | N |
Of these 13 transactions, 12 were within the 1-km intake zone for Cedar Primary School.
| Average Price of All Included Units | $582,752.00 (13 Transactions) |
| Average Price of Units within 1-km intake zone | $584,898.00 (12 Transactions) |
| Average Price of Units within 1- to 2-km intake zone | $557,000.00 (1 Transactions) |
Based on these transactions, there is 5% difference between being in the 1-km intake zone. However, as there is only one transaction for units outside of the 1-km intake zone, we would take this with a pinch of salt as there could be factors specific to the unit, such as being farther away from the MRT station or poorer flat conditions.
Marymount Convent School
Blocks 101 to 108 Bishan St 12 VS 109 to 116 Bishan St 12.
All these blocks are within the 1-km intake zone for Marymount Convent School and also Guangyang Primary School.
| Block | Storey | Floor Area (sqm) | Lease Commencement | Resale Price | Resale Registration Date | 1-km intake zone |
| 104 | 01 to 03 | 89 | 1985 | $515,000.00 | Aug-21 | Y |
| 106 | 13 to 15 | 104 | 1985 | $655,000.00 | Aug-21 | Y |
| 106 | 04 to 06 | 84 | 1985 | $508,888.00 | Jun-21 | Y |
| 106 | 10 to 12 | 84 | 1985 | $545,000.00 | Jun-21 | Y |
| 107 | 10 to 12 | 84 | 1985 | $536,888.00 | May-21 | Y |
| 106 | 07 to 09 | 105 | 1985 | $648,000.00 | Apr-21 | Y |
| 107 | 04 to 06 | 84 | 1985 | $498,000.00 | Apr-21 | Y |
| 106 | 07 to 09 | 84 | 1985 | $510,000.00 | Feb-21 | Y |
| 107 | 04 to 06 | 104 | 1985 | $600,000.00 | Jan-21 | Y |
| 106 | 10 to 12 | 84 | 1985 | $492,000.00 | Dec-20 | Y |
| 108 | 01 to 03 | 89 | 1985 | $500,000.00 | Dec-20 | Y |
| 113 | 01 to 03 | 84 | 1986 | $480,000.00 | Aug-21 | N |
| 109 | 07 to 09 | 84 | 1985 | $520,000.00 | Jun-21 | N |
| 109 | 10 to 12 | 84 | 1985 | $528,000.00 | Jun-21 | N |
| 111 | 13 to 15 | 84 | 1986 | $538,000.00 | Apr-21 | N |
| 113 | 04 to 06 | 84 | 1986 | $543,888.00 | Apr-21 | N |
| 109 | 07 to 09 | 84 | 1985 | $558,000.00 | Mar-21 | N |
| 111 | 01 to 03 | 105 | 1986 | $550,000.00 | Mar-21 | N |
| 115 | 01 to 03 | 104 | 1986 | $570,000.00 | Mar-21 | N |
| 113 | 07 to 09 | 84 | 1986 | $530,000.00 | Feb-21 | N |
| 114 | 01 to 03 | 105 | 1986 | $515,000.00 | Feb-21 | N |
| 114 | 10 to 12 | 84 | 1986 | $540,000.00 | Feb-21 | N |
| 111 | 01 to 03 | 104 | 1986 | $550,000.00 | Jan-21 | N |
| 112 | 07 to 09 | 104 | 1985 | $630,000.00 | Jan-21 | N |
| 113 | 01 to 03 | 84 | 1986 | $490,000.00 | Jan-21 | N |
| 113 | 01 to 03 | 105 | 1986 | $570,000.00 | Jan-21 | N |
| 113 | 10 to 12 | 105 | 1986 | $625,000.00 | Jan-21 | N |
| 115 | 01 to 03 | 104 | 1986 | $570,000.00 | Jan-21 | N |
| 115 | 04 to 06 | 104 | 1986 | $600,000.00 | Jan-21 | N |
| 114 | 10 to 12 | 84 | 1986 | $516,000.00 | Dec-20 | N |
| 114 | 10 to 12 | 84 | 1986 | $520,000.00 | Dec-20 | N |
| 109 | 07 to 09 | 84 | 1985 | $508,000.00 | Nov-20 | N |
| 109 | 10 to 12 | 84 | 1985 | $508,888.00 | Nov-20 | N |
| 109 | 10 to 12 | 84 | 1985 | $530,000.00 | Nov-20 | N |
| 109 | 04 to 06 | 105 | 1985 | $600,000.00 | Nov-20 | N |
| 111 | 01 to 03 | 84 | 1986 | $453,000.00 | Nov-20 | N |
| 113 | 10 to 12 | 84 | 1986 | $545,000.00 | Nov-20 | N |
| 114 | 07 to 09 | 104 | 1986 | $640,000.00 | Nov-20 | N |
| 115 | 07 to 09 | 84 | 1986 | $458,000.00 | Nov-20 | N |
| 111 | 10 to 12 | 105 | 1986 | $638,000.00 | Oct-20 | N |
| 116 | 01 to 03 | 84 | 1985 | $475,000.00 | Sep-20 | N |
We analysed all the HDB resale transactions for 4-room flats for the past one year for the blocks 257 to 272 Bishan St 24 which lay at the boundary of the 1-km intake zone for Ai Tong School. This area is unique as all these blocks are within the 1-km intake zone of Catholic High School. The DBSS estate, which has been making the headlines with units selling for record prices above $1 million, Natura Loft, is also right next to these blocks, especially block 272.
Of these 24 transactions, 12 were within the 1-km intake zone for Ai Tong School.
| Average Price of All Included Units | $569,791.67 (24 Transactions) |
| Average Price of Units within 1-km intake zone | $600,666.67 (12 Transactions) |
| Average Price of Units within 1- to 2-km intake zone | $538,916.67 (12 Transactions) |
The units just outside of the 1-km boundary were actually closer to Natura Loft and may have benefited from the record-breaking transactions there. It will remain to be seen if being within the 1-km intake zones for both Ai Tong and Catholic High will benefit the blocks within the 1-km intake zone.
CHIJ St Nicholas Girls’
Analysis covers: Blk 635, 637, 639 Ang Mo Kio Ave 6 VS Blk 633, 636, 638 and 640 Ang Mo Kio Ave 6
All these blocks are within the 1-km intake zone for CHIJ St Nicholas Girls’ and also Anderson Primary School.
| Block | Storey | Floor Area (sqm) | Lease Commencement | Resale Price | Resale Registration Date | 1-km intake zone |
| 637 | 10 to 12 | 92 | 1980 | $465,000.00 | Jun-21 | Y |
| 635 | 04 to 06 | 92 | 1980 | $435,000.00 | Apr-21 | Y |
| 636 | 01 to 03 | 91 | 1980 | $395,000.00 | Aug-21 | N |
| 638 | 10 to 12 | 91 | 1980 | $423,000.00 | Aug-21 | N |
| 640 | 04 to 06 | 91 | 1980 | $390,000.00 | May-21 | N |
| 640 | 07 to 09 | 91 | 1980 | $440,000.00 | May-21 | N |
| 638 | 01 to 03 | 91 | 1980 | $375,000.00 | Apr-21 | N |
| 634 | 04 to 06 | 91 | 1980 | $435,000.00 | Feb-21 | N |
| 634 | 07 to 09 | 91 | 1980 | $438,000.00 | Dec-20 | N |
| 638 | 04 to 06 | 91 | 1980 | $390,000.00 | Nov-20 | N |
| 634 | 07 to 09 | 91 | 1980 | $467,500.00 | Sep-20 | N |
We analysed all the HDB resale transactions for 4-room flats for the past one year for the Blocks 633 to 640 Ang Mo Kio Ave 6. We omitted the 2 transactions for Block 633 as they had a different lease commencement year – 1985, compared to the other blocks which commenced their leases in 1980. This left a total of 11 transactions.
Of these 11 transactions, 2 are within the 1-km intake zone for CHIJ St Nicholas.
| Average Price of All Included Units | $423,045.45 (11 Transactions) |
| Average Price of Units within 1-km intake zone | $450,000.00 (2 Transactions) |
| Average Price of Units within 1- to 2-km intake zone | $417,055.56 (9 Transactions) |
For these 11 transactions, the units within the 1-km intake zone sold for a premium of 8% above the units within the 1- to 2-km intake zone. Do take these results with a pinch of salt as these transactions took place before the new HSD changes. There is also no way for us to assess the other factors that could have contributed to the higher prices such as the condition of the flat and perceived renovation value.
Many HDB Blocks Are Within Overlapping Intake Zones Of Primary Schools
While we were selecting the HDB blocks for analysis, we ran into issues that many of the intake zones were overlapping for estates that straddled between the 1-km and 1- to 2-km intake zone boundaries. This is likely because the popular schools are located within established estates where there are multiple primary schools servicing the entire HDB town. Likewise, Cedar Primary School, Marymount Convent and Maris Stella are also schools that are located near or within established HDB towns.
For the pragmatic parents who are less fussed about sending their children to popular primary schools, this can be an advantage as the chances of registering your child in an alternative primary school are quite high.
There Is No Obvious Price Difference For HDB Flats Located Within The 1-KM Intake Zone
Based on the above analysis, there is no significant price difference in HDB resale flats located within the 1-km intake zone and being located within the 1- to 2-km intake zone. For the cases where there is a price difference, the number of transactions is small and could be due to individual unit differences instead of an overall trend.
For parents, this can be a relief because buying a home would boil down to your family’s preferences instead of school location. For property speculators, buying an HDB flat based on profiting off the changes in home-school distance is likely to result in disappointment. Instead, any price increase is likely due to factors affecting your individual flat unit such as the flat condition.
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