The Dollars And Sense Of Soccer Betting

The sports betting market offers a remarkable level of market efficiency.

Whenever one places a bet, his bet (also known as his assets) has a terminal value throughout 90 minutes of the football match. The odds adjust almost instantaneously to news, whereby a goal scored by either team will result in a change in the live odds of both teams.

We understand that placing some extra cash on a betting slip helps enhance the excitement when are enjoying the beautiful game. Hence, we are not totally discouraging soccer betting but we are advising our readers to bet small and just enough to enjoy the game without burning a big hole in their savings.

Each Bet Decreases One’s Net Worth

A quick look at the most basic bet type at the Singapore Pools, where one can choose to either place his bet on the home team, the away team or a draw. As shown below, one will receive a payout of SG$1.47 for every dollar placed on Chelsea if Chelsea wins the match. That payout will be SG$3.75 for a tie and SG$5.50 for West Ham, deeming the chance of West Ham winning to be the lowest.

source: Singapore Pools

To put these odds into perspective, the probability of Chelsea winning the match can be calculated using the formula below:Hence, it is believed that Chelsea will win at a 68% probability, and the rest works out to be a 26.7% probability for a draw and an 18.2% probability for a West Ham win.

By adding up all these percentages, one will derive a book of 112.9%, which is more than 100%. The 12.9% is known as the “bookmaker margin”, which is what the bookmaker is expected to earn.

In this case, the ideal situation will be that the bookmaker (Singapore Pools) makes SG$112.90 for every SG$100 they pay out.

As for each individual, no matter which side they put their money on, there is an instant decrease in his net worth. For every dollar one places on Chelsea, the team with the highest probability of winning, his expected return is at SG$0.68.

Multiples Betting

A Multiples bet with the Singapore Pools is a combination of two or more selections, where all the selections must be accurate in order for one to win his bet.

The odds of the bet will of course, be a sum of all the odds multiplied.

Assuming one wishes to place an SG$15 bet on 3 teams for 3 different matches during the weekend.

Team A has an odd of 1.5, Team B at 2.0 and Team C at 4.5. For a Multiples bet, the odds will befor every dollar one places his bet on. The teams have a winning probability of 0.7, 0.5 and 0.22 respectively. Hence, the probability that all three cases happen will beWhen one is on a Multiples bet, he has a 0.0737 chance of winning SG$202.50 with his SG$15 and a much higher chance of him getting nothing in return.

This makes his expected return 0.0737 x 202.5 = SG$14.92

As we can see, the expected return is lesser than his initial betting capital, bearing in mind that there is an overwhelming possibility of one losing all his SG$15.

Read Also: Why Singapore Pools Do Not Offer The Asian Handicap Bet

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