How Much Would You Have Made In The Stock Market If You Started Investing In 2024

Despite an overall strong stock market over the past two years, recent months have seen rising volatility driven by trade tensions from Trump’s reciprocal tariff policies. With a global economic slowdown looming, many investors may ponder whether to continue holding their investments or take profit and wait for a more opportune time. 

This age-old question of whether it’s possible to time the market for more profits has been on the minds of investors – adding to the dilemma. We explore a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy against lump sum investing, in the S&P 500 and Singapore Straits Times Index to highlight which may deliver better results – and the pros and cons of using each strategy.   

Our Assumptions:

For this year’s review, we assume an investor starts investing in the S&P 500 ETF from January to December 2024 with a capital of $10,000.

They can either: 

(1) Invest the full $10,000 in one lump sum in January 2024, or
(2) Take a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach, investing $833.33 each month over 12 months.

Scenario 1: Lump Sum Investment Of $10,000 On January 2024 In The S&P 500 ETF

In scenario 1, we invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 on 2 January 2024, the first trading day of 2024. In our hypothetical scenario, we take the closing price on 2 January 2024 – 472.45 – as the cost price of our investment. In total, we bought 21.16 units in the S&P 500.

As of 31 December 2024, our 21.16 units were worth $12,395, a gain of about 23.95%.

Even if we did nothing in 2025, this portfolio would have grown to $12,549 today – or about 1.5% higher – as the S&P 500 ETF continued to rise in the first 6 months of the year, despite the uncertainties and volatility in the stock market. 

For reference, the price of the S&P 500 ETF has risen to 593.05

Scenario 2: DCA Of $10,000 In 2024 In The S&P 500 ETF

For a DCA strategy, we take the closing price of the first trading day for the month. For example, 2 January, 1 February, 1 March, etc and invest $833.33 equally in each month.

The main advantage of using a DCA strategy is to take advantage of any down months by accumulating more units at lower prices. As we can tell, 2024 was a largely positive year for the S&P 500 – and we would have bought units at incrementally higher prices.

As of 31 December 2024, our portfolio would be worth $10,995, a gain of about 9.95%.  This is less than half the returns compared to the lump sum investment strategy across the same timeframe.

Keeping this investment till today, the portfolio will be worth $11,132.

Scenario 3: Lump Sum Investment Of $10,000 On January 2024 In The STI ETF

A $10,000 investment on the STI ETF in 2 January would have purchased 3,030.31 units. Based on a unit price of 3.87 on 31 December, the portfolio would have appreciated to $11,727, which is a gain of 17.27%.

Today, the STI ETF is trading at 4.01, which will give us another 3.6% return – with a portfolio value of $12,152.

Scenario 4: DCA Of $10,000 In 2024 In The STI ETF

Similar to Scenario 2, we take the STI closing price on the first trading day of each month in 2024 and invest an equal amount of $833.33. 

In this scenario, we would making a gain of $1,309 (or 13.09%). This is slightly lower than investing a lump sum (which was 17.27%) as the STI was similarly in a bull run offering limited opportunities to accumulate more shares at lower prices. 

Keeping this portfolio till today, it would have risen another 3.6% to $11,718.

Source: STI, SGX

Lump Sum Investing Might Trump DCA In A Bull Market

If you believe in timing the market to capture the tops and bottoms, a lump-sum investment would be the preferred strategy. On the other hand, if you follow the widely recommended advice to remain invested in the market regardless of the market conditions, then a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy may be more suitable.

In a bull market like 2024, lump sum investing may be superior to a DCA investment strategy. This is because there aren’t many opportunities to accumulate units at lower prices in a rising market. In contrast, with a lump sum strategy, we get to purchase the maximum number of units at a lower price.

However, in a bear market or volatile market conditions, a DCA approach allows us to average out our investments – allowing us to get more units at lower prices. This is opposed to a lump sum investment strategy that could inadvertently cause us to invest at higher prices with little opportunity to re-enter the market at lower prices. As such, a DCA approach would be a more optimal strategy to adopt in a bear market. 

Nobody can predict the future, and we won’t know when prices are going to go up or down. That’s why DCA investing can help you protect yourself against the risk of a bear market or simply have the ability to invest whenever an opportunity presents itself.

However, if you are confident of your market-timing skills, then a lump sum approach could work better for you – as shown in the scenarios we used in the article.

From Oil Shocks to AI Optimism: Markets Face Competing Forces in 2026

Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are stoking inflation fears, while the continued surge in AI-related stocks is raising questions about sustainability.

Can markets keep climbing under these conflicting pressures?

Join FSM ETFestival x Mid-Year Review 2026 on 11 July for the 2H 2026 outlook and share how you can invest beyond the crisis.

Register Today.