Voting for GE2025 concluded at 8 p.m. Within the next 6 hours, we should have all the GE2025 official results, barring any recount, or unless overseas votes have a material impact on the election outcome.
How Sample Counts Work
Since GE2015, Sample Count results have been announced ahead of the official results.
Sample counts work as such. In each polling station, a counting assistant picks up a random bundle of 100 ballot papers (in front of the candidates and counting agents present) and counts the number of votes for each candidate (or group of candidates in the case of a GRC).
Since each polling station will have a different number of total ballot votes, different weightage will be assigned to each station to account for the difference in votes cast.
For example, if a total of 100,000 votes are cast in a GRC and a certain polling station in the constituency has 3,000 votes, the weightage given to that station will be 3%. The various polling stations across the constituency will each have their weighted scores tabulated and added together.
According to the Elections Department, the Sample Count for the electoral division will be released to the media and published on the Elections Department’s website while counting is still in progress. As this is a sample count, the election result could be different.
How Accurate Will The Sample Count Be?
They are fairly accurate.
Statistically, the number given is a confidence level of 95%, plus/minus 4%.
This means there is a 95 percent chance that the election results will be within a 4% margin of the sample count. This implies that any indicative results that fall between the 46% and 54% ranges are far from a done deal, since there is a 4% margin of error, especially if they are at an SMC (more on this below).
Since GE2020, the number of polling stations (due to COVID-19) has increased. Since 100 votes are always taken from every polling station, the result is that more overall votes (as compared to GE2015) are then used to determine the sample count. This also means that the more polling stations there are in a constituency (i.e. GRCs will have more polling stations than SMCs), the lower the error margin is likely to be for the sample count. If you want to know the maths behind this, you can check out this webpage – The Math behind sample count, which gives us a detailed mathematical breakdown.
The TL;DR is this. Statistically speaking, candidates who win 60% of their sample votes have a 95% assurance that the final result will be between 56% and 64%. It also means that if the sample count gives us a result that falls within 54% and 46%, there is still a reasonable chance that the candidate with the lower count could still win. Again, the larger the constituency, the more likely the sample count would be closer to the official results.
For reference, in GE2020, the widest difference between the sample count and the actual result was typically found in SMCs. These include Bukit Batok SMC (Sample Count: 57% PAP, actual 54.8% PAP), Bukit Panjang SMC (Sample Count: 56% PAP, actual 53.74% PAP) and Hougang SMC (Sample Count: 58% WP, actual 61.19% WP).
Kebun Baru SMC fell significantly outside the 4% error margin, with the Sample Count showing 68% to the PAP, and the actual result being only 62.97%, a difference of 5.03%. Punggol West SMC also fell just outside the 4% error margin, with Sample Count coming in at 65% for the PAP, and the actual result at only 60.97%, a difference of 4.03%.
In the Kebun Baru SMC and Punggol West SMC cases, the Sample Count, which had a margin of error of more than 4%, didn’t matter as both SMCs polled above 60% for the eventual winners.
GRCs have a far lesser margin between Sample Counts and actual results, with most GRC results falling within 1% of the Sample Counts. Thus, sample counts for GRCs are usually more accurate than those for SMCs.
Automatic Recount If Winning Margin Is Less Than 2%
Since GE2020, there will be an automatic recount if the difference in votes between candidates contesting a constituency is 2 per cent or less. In GE2020, no constituency fell within this range, with West Coast GRC being the closest at 51.68% (PAP): 48.32% (PSP).
In GE2015, Aljunied GRC had a recount as the winning margin of 50.96% (WP): 49.04 (PAP) was less than 2%.
We will update the GE2025 Sample Counts and official results as they are announced. Sample count results are expected to come in from 9:30 p.m. onwards, and official results will likely come in from 11:30 p.m. onwards.
Top Photo Credit: iStock/Kandl
GE2025 Sample Count Results
Potong Pasir – PAP: 71%: PAR: 8%: SPP: 21%
Bukit Panjang – PAP: 62%: SDP:38%
Pioneer SMC – PAP: 66%: PSP: 34%
Jurong Central SMC – PAP: 81%: RDU: 19%
Bukit Gombak SMC – PAP: 75%: PSP: 25%
Sembawang West SMC: – PAP: 53%: SDP: 47%
Mountbatten SMC – PAP: 62%: Independent (Jeremy Tan): 38%
Queenstown SMC – PAP: 82%: PAR: 18%
Chua Chu Kang GRC – PAP 63%: PSP: 37%
Aljunied GRC – WP: 59% PAP: 41%
Tampines Changkat SMC – PAP: 55% WP: 45%
Yio Chu Kang SMC – PAP 76%: PAR: 24%
Punggol GRC – PAP 54%: WP: 46%
Radin MAS SMC – PAP: 69%: Independent (Darryl Lo): 24%: PAR: 7%
Marymount SMC – PAP 71%: PSP 29%
Tanjong Pagar GRC – PAP: 81%: PAR: 19%
Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC – PAP: 75%: SPP: 25%
Ang Mo Kio GRC – PAP: 79%: PPP: 10% : SUP: 11%
Sengkang GRC – WP: 56%: PAP: 44%
Holland-Bukit Timah GRC – PAP: 80% : RDU: 20%
Jurong East-Bukit Batok – PAP: 76%: RDU: 24%
Pasir Ris-Changi GRC – PAP: 67%: SDA: 33%
Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC – PAP: 74%: SDP: 26%
West Coast-Jurong West GRC – PAP: 61%: PSP: 39%
Kebun Baru SMC – PAP: 66%: PSP: 34%
Nee Soon GRC – PAP: 74%: RDU: 26%
Jalan Kayu SMC – PAP: 52%: WP: 48%
Sembawang GRC – PAP: 67%: NSP: 2%: SDP: 31%
Hougang SMC – WP: 63%: PAP: 37%
Jalan Besar GRC – PAP: 75%: PAR: 25%
Tampines GRC: PAP – 53%: WP: 46%: PPP: 1%: NSP: 0%
East Coast GRC – PAP: 59%: WP: 41%
GE2025: Final Results
Aljunied GRC – WP 59.68%: PAP 40.32%
Ang Mo Kio GRC – PAP 78.95%: SUP 10.84% (lose deposit): PPP 10.21% (lose deposit)
Bukit Gombak SMC – PAP 75.83%: PSP 24.17%
Bukit Panjang SMC – PAP 61.41% : SDP 38.59%
Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC – PAP 75.21%: SPP 24.79%
Chua Chu Kang GRC – PAP 63.59% : PSP 36.41%
East Coast GRC – PAP 58.76%: WP 41.24%
Hougang SMC – WP 62.17%: PAP 37.83%
Holland-Bukit Timah GRC – PAP 79.29%: RDU: 20.71%
Jalan Besar GRC – PAP 75.21%: PAR 24.79%
Jalan Kayu SMC – PAP 51.47%: WP 48.53%
Jurong East-Bukit Batok – PAP 76.66%: RDU 23.34%
Jurong Central SMC – PAP 80.51%: RDU 19.49%
Kebun Baru SMC – PAP 68.5%: PSP 31.5%
Marine Parade-Braddell Heights – PAP (Uncontested)
Marymount SMC – PAP 70.7%: PSP 29.3%
Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC – PAP 73.46%: SDP 26.54%
Mountbatten SMC – PAP 70.7%: Independent (Jeremy Tan): 36.16%
Nee Soon GRC – PAP 73.81%: RDU 26.19%
Pasir Ris-Changi GRC – PAP 67.66%: SDA 32.34%
Pioneer SMC – PAP 65.42%: PSP 34.58%
Punggol GRC – PAP 55.17%: WP 44.83%
Potong Pasir SMC – PAP 69.18%: SPP: 22.47%: PAR: 8.35% (lose deposit)
Queenstown SMC – PAP 81.12%: PAR 18.88%
Radin MAS SMC – PAP 69.17%: Independent (Darryl Lo) 23:47%: PAR: 7.36% (lose deposit)
Sembawang GRC – PAP 67.75%: SDP 29.93%: NSP: 2.32% (lose deposit)
Sembawang West SMC – PAP 53.19%: SDP 46.81%
Sengkang GRC – WP 56.31%: PAP 43.69%
Tampines Changkat SMC – PAP 56.17%: WP 43.83%
Tampines GRC – PAP 52.02%: WP 47.3%: PPP 0.43% (lose deposit): NSP 0.18% (lose deposit)
Tanjong Pagar GRC – PAP 81.03%: PAR 18.97%
West Coast-Jurong West – PAP 60.01%: 39.99%
Yio Chu Kang SMC – PAP 78.73%: PAR 21.27%
Final Count:
PAP: 87 Seats
WP: 10 Seats
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