Presidential Election 2023: How Accurate Will The Sample Count Be Tonight?

For the first time in Singapore’s Presidential Election, the Elections Department Singapore (ELD) will publicly release a sample count. Sample count are not new in Singapore and were first introduced in GE2015 and also used in GE2020.

How Does The Sample Count Work?

As explained by the ELD, the sample count helps prevent speculation and misinformation from unofficial sources while counting is underway, before counting is completed and the election results are announced. A sample count also helps election officials check against the election result for that electoral division.

At each polling station, a counting assistant will randomly pick a bundle of 100 ballot papers and count the number of votes for each candidate. Since each polling station will have a different number of total votes, different weightage will be assigned to each station to account for the difference in votes cast. Votes from all 1,264 polling stations will be included in the sample count.

How Accurate Would The Sample Count Be?

The sample count will give a fairly accurate indicative result with a confidence level of about 95%, plus or minus 4% points. What this means is that there is a 95 percent chance that the actual election results will be within a 4% margin of the sample count. This implies that any indicative results announced that fall between the 46% to 54% range are far from a done deal since there is a 4 percent margin in error.

Statistically speaking, candidates who win 60% of their sample votes would have a 95% assurance that the final result will win between 56% to 64%.

Candidates that win 52% of the sample votes have a 95% probability of accumulating between 48% and 56% of the votes cast, so it would be fair to say that the contest is far from over. Likewise, a candidate winning 46% of the sample vote may still have a chance, statistically speaking, to win the actual vote.

In a very tight race, the sample count may not give us an accurate result. For example, in the 2011 Presidential Election, President Tony Tan won 35.2% of the vote with Tan Cheng Bock getting 34.85%, or just 7,269 votes less. In such a tight race, the sample count, had it been taken, would not be able to give us an accurate indication of the actual result.

In the event of a winning margin of 2% or less, a recount will be made.

But if the race isn’t tight and one candidate is shown during the sample count as being clearly in the lead, it’s safe to assume that he would win the election.

Regardless of what the sample account results are, the ELD recommends waiting for the Returning Officer’s announcement to know the finalised results.

If you are curious about how closely the sample count reflects the actual results of the election, you can refer to the difference between the sample count and final results in GE2020

Read Also: How Much Can Candidates Spend On The Singapore Presidential Election And How Are Expenses Calculated

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