The annual Chinese New Year’s (CNY) $12 million TOTO draw is back. In a state with the population being mainly Chinese, we should expect Singapore Pools (SGP) to be visited with queues longer the Hello Kitty craze in Singapore many years ago.
We are back to provide you with more insights on the TOTO lottery system. These insights might affect your strategy trying to win the top prize. May the odds be ever in your favour.
Money waits for no one, let’s start off with the first insight!
SGP’s $228 Pack Deal Is Only Legit If You Do Not Believe In Random Walk
The $228 Pack Deal consists of the thirty QuickPick System 7 tickets plus 6 Singapore Sweep tickets. Three system 7 tickets are printed from ten SGP outlets with the most jackpot winners. The 6 Singapore Sweep tickets are from the top 6 Group 1 winners (excluding iTOTO) in 2015.
The ten SGP outlets are:
|1||Delisia Agency||149 Rochor Rd Fu Lu Shou Complex #B1-26 S(188425)|
|2||Lee Eng Trading Store||Blk 201B Tampines St 21 #01-1083 S(522201)|
|3||NTUC FairPrice Serangoon Central Hypermart||23 Serangoon Central NEX #03-42 S(556083)|
|4||Singapore Pools Clementi Town Centre Branch||Blk 446 Clementi Ave 3 #01-183 S(120446)|
|5||Tan Wee Fong Trading||Blk 24 Bendemeer Rd #01-529 S(330024)|
|6||Evercool Engineering||Blk 95 Lor 4 Toa Payoh #01-50 S(310095)|
|7||NTUC FairPrice Hougang Street 21||Blk 202 Hougang St 21 #01-00 S(530202)|
|8||NTUC FairPrice Tampines Mall||4 Tampines Central 5 Tampines Mall #B1-12 S(529510)|
|9||Singapore Pools Teck Whye Branch||Blk 141 Teck Whye Lane #01-271 S(680141)|
|10||Teo Khar Bee Agency||Blk 84 Redhill Lane #01-356 S(150084)|
Source: Singapore Pools
From a random walk point of view, the place where you buy the TOTO ticket should not have any bearing on the probability of winning the jackpot. How can the place where you bought the ticket actually influence and affect the six numbers that are going to be obtained sometime in the future at a different location.
Of course, there are multiple possible reasons that people can always come up with. (1) Feng Shui of the outlets, (2) God of Wealth overlooks those outlets, (3) the environment of the outlet breeds luck and wealth, and many more.
If you are a firm believer that those outlets will continue producing jackpot-winning tickets, then you should either buy the $228 Pack Deal or personally travel down to those outlets and buy those tickets.
If You Managed To Get The Group 1 Numbers, You Have 50% Chance Of Winning The Entire $12 Million
In the last top 20-jackpot prize values (ranging between $4.2mil to $12.1mil), 10 winners are solo winners, means they win the entire jackpot money to themselves. The smallest amount was $4.24 million while the largest solo winner fattens his bank account by $8.04 million.
If we were to only use these 20 sample size as a proxy for your probability of not sharing the $12 million, you have about 50% chance (10/20) of being really rich overnight, alone.
Of course, we need to mention that the probability of winning the jackpot is 0.00000715%. Yes, that is 1 in 13,983,816. Even if everyone in Singapore were to purchase two TOTO tickets in a sequential manner, there is still a high chance that none of us will win the jackpot.
The NPV Of A TOTO Ticket Is Actually $75.16 For This CNY Draw
This is based on the assumption that you are the only winner for that prize group (1 to 4 only) and that you only buy one ordinary entry or quick pick.
By adding the expected returns from each category (cash prize multiply by the probability of winning it) that would give us a total expected return of $76.16. Lessing the $1 we initially used to buy the TOTO ticket would give us a Net Present Value (NPV) of $75.16. Let’s just ignore the discount factor since the draw time and the purchase time is not significantly different (and seriously, how much opportunity cost will anyone lose from that $1).
How do you intend to place your bets for this $12 million CNY draw? Let us know your betting strategies.
We would like to wish everyone a Happy Chinese New Year, blessed with health, wealth and harmony throughout the year of the monkey.
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