The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicked off last week on 11 June, and this time, it features an expanded format with 48 teams competing across 104 matches in the US, Canada and Mexico.
For football fans, the next five weeks will revolve around match schedules, group-stage permutations and staying awake long enough to catch the late kick-offs. For those of us in Singapore, there will be plenty of those.
For investors, however, a different question arises: does any of this actually matter for stocks?
The answer depends on what you are looking at. Globally, the evidence is mixed. For stocks listed on the Singapore Exchange (SGX), however, DBS has analysed the Straits Times Index (STI) ‘s performance during past World Cups and identified recurring patterns.
Here’s what the data tells us about how stocks have behaved during recent tournaments.
Lower Volumes, Not Necessarily Lower Returns
The strongest finding in the academic literature is not about stock returns but trading activity.
A widely cited European Central Bank (ECB) study by researchers Michael Ehrmann and David-Jan Jansen analysed minute-by-minute trading data across 15 international stock exchanges during the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. It found that when a national team was playing, the number of trades on its home exchange fell by 45%, while trading volumes declined by 55%.
Even matches that did not involve the local national team saw trading activity fall by 24%. The slowdown began before kick-off and lasted for up to 45 minutes after the final whistle. In a report ahead of the 2026 tournament, financial services firm William Blair noted that lower trading volumes during World Cup matches remain a recurring pattern, particularly in countries with strong football followings.
However, this appears to be more a case of distraction than fear. Investors are simply paying attention to something else, whether that’s a penalty shootout or a tense knockout-stage match.
What is less clear is whether lower participation consistently translates into weaker stock prices. On that front, the global evidence does not point to a clear or reliable trend.
Read Also: The Singaporean Guide To The Cost Of Watching The FIFA World Cup 2026
Does The Tournament Affect STI And Singapore Stocks?
DBS has done some of the most systematic work on what the World Cup effect could mean for Singapore investors.
The bank tracked SGX performance across five World Cup cycles between 2002 and 2018. Its findings show that trading activity weakened during every tournament, with the value of shares traded falling by between 5% and 48%. The STI finished lower over the course of the tournament in 2002, 2014 and 2018.
However, in 2006, 2010 and 2014, market participation and momentum gradually improved from the Round of 16 onwards. The recovery became more noticeable through the quarter-finals and into the tournament’s later stages.
For 2026, DBS expects a similar pattern.
The bank expects a quieter June, partly because the World Cup coincides with the US summer holiday season and Singapore’s school holidays. Rather than viewing this as a cause for concern, DBS sees it as a potential accumulation opportunity.
Its year-end STI target remains unchanged at 5,250, while its base-case scenario expects the benchmark to stay above 4,700 throughout the year.
How DBS Is Viewing The Market
The stocks DBS has highlighted ahead of the World Cup lull are worth examining not just for what they are, but why they were selected.
The bank favours stocks with dividends going ex-dividend in July and August, including OCBC, Singtel and Venture. The rationale is straightforward: investors returning to the market after the tournament may be attracted by upcoming dividend payouts, helping to support demand ahead of the ex-dividend date.
Among S-REITs, DBS has highlighted CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, CapitaLand Ascendas REIT and Mapletree Logistics Trust.
Here, the investment case is driven more by sector fundamentals than football. DBS believes much of the de-rating caused by higher-for-longer interest rates has already been priced in, while current yield spreads remain attractive.
For investors looking at technology stocks, DBS continues to favour semiconductor names on a buy-on-pullback basis, with UMS preferred over AEM and Frencken.
The bank believes the underlying growth drivers remain intact. These include strong customer order momentum for UMS and AI-related tailwinds supporting AEM, even if some near-term profit-taking emerges following strong gains earlier in the year.
Does It Matter For Long-Term Investors?
It is important to keep the World Cup effect in perspective.
The decline in trading volumes is real and well-documented. The tendency for STI weakness during tournament periods is also observable in the data. However, these are patterns rather than guarantees. Market performance during each World Cup cycle has also been heavily influenced by broader economic and market conditions, not just football.
For long-term investors, none of this fundamentally changes the investment case for any stock or the broader market. A quieter June does not make DBS stock a better or worse investment. What it may do, however, is create a slightly more attractive entry point for investors who have been waiting to build positions after a strong market rally.
While trading volumes may dip during the World Cup, factors such as company fundamentals, management quality and valuation will continue to play a much larger role in determining long-term investment returns than any football tournament.
Photo Credit: iStock/efks
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