Every Chinese New Year, Singapore Pools organises the TOTO Hong Bao Draw. With a $12 million jackpot each year, it’s one of the biggest prizes and attracts even the most casual of players. This year, Singapore Pools is bringing back the $10 and $20 packs, each offering a different set of chances to land that jackpot. Packs are sold at all Singapore Pools outlets this week, with the Hong Bao Draw taking place this Friday, 27th February 2026, at 9.30pm.
The packs have become something of a seasonal ritual. It’s an easy way for casual players to take part in the festivities without fussing over number selection. But while the glittering prize pool makes headlines each year, the reality is far less glamorous.
The math in this article reveals that the odds of winning remain astronomically low, no matter which pack you choose. The $20 option may appear to offer more chances than the $10 pack, but the difference is marginal when weighed against the sheer scale of probability.
Read Also: The Math Behind TOTO – Here’s Why It (Statistically) Doesn’t Make Financial Sense To Play
How To Play TOTO
Pick 6 numbers between 1 and 49. This is known as an Ordinary Entry, and the bet amount is $1 per entry.
You can also pick more than 6 numbers, up to 12. This is known as a System Entry. In this format, you are buying all possible combinations of your chosen numbers in sets of 6 numbers.
For example, in a System 7 Entry, you select 7 numbers between 1 and 49. As an illustration, assume you pick “3”, “8”, “14”, “21”, “22”, “26” and “34”.
You are effectively placing a bet on and buying an Ordinary Entry for all the possible sets of 6 numbers from these 7 numbers.
- [3, 8, 14, 21, 22, 26]
- [3, 8, 14, 21, 22, 34]
- [3, 8, 14, 21, 26, 34]
- [3, 8, 14, 22, 26, 34]
- [3, 8, 21, 22, 26, 34]
- [3, 14, 21, 22, 26, 34]
- [8, 14, 21, 22, 26, 34]
Because there are 7 possible sets, this is why a System 7 Entry costs $7 per entry.
Source: Singapore Pools
How Are TOTO Prizes Paid Out
As with the normal TOTO draws, a set of 6 Winning Numbers, as well as an Additional Number is randomly selected. The Group 1 prize, also known as the Jackpot, for the Hong Bao Draw is about $12 million. To win this prize, your ticket has to have all 6 Winning Numbers.
| Prize Group | Winning Numbers Matched | Prize Money |
| Group 1 (Jackpot) | All 6 Winning Numbers | 38% of prize pool |
| Group 2 | 5 Winning Numbers + Additional Number | 8% of prize pool |
| Group 3 | 5 Winning Numbers | 5.5% of prize pool |
| Group 4 | 4 Winning Numbers + Additional Number | 3% of prize pool |
| Group 5 | 4 Winning Numbers | $50 |
| Group 6 | 3 Winning Numbers + Additional Number | $25 |
| Group 7 | 3 Winning Numbers | $10 |
What Is In The $10 And $20 Packs
| $20 Pack | $10 Pack | |
| Quick Pick TOTO System 7 | 2 boards (worth $14) | 1 board (worth $7) |
| Quick Pick TOTO Ordinary | 3 boards (worth $3) | – |
| Singapore Sweep | 1 ticket (worth $3) | 1 ticket (worth $3) |
As in previous years, the $20 Pack consists of 2 boards of Quick Pick TOTO System 7, 3 boards of Quick Pick TOTO Ordinary, and 1 Singapore Sweep ticket for the upcoming draw.
The $10 Pack consists of just 1 board of Quick Pick TOTO System 7 and 1 Singapore Sweep ticket for the upcoming draw.
Quick Pick means that the numbers on your ticket are randomly generated by the system.
What Are The Odds Of Winning The Hong Bao Draw
To calculate the odds of winning the Hong Bao Draw, we use the Net Present Value method. This effectively tells you how much a TOTO Ordinary Entry in the Hong Bao Draw is worth.
For calculation purposes, we assume that the Group 1 or Jackpot prize value of $12 is 38% of the prize pool. For simplicity’s sake, we also assume that there are no other winners (since the prize value is shared among all prize winners).
| Odds Of Winning | Prize Value | Odds x Prize Value | |
| Group 1 | 1 in 13,987,816 | $12,000,000 | $0.86 |
| Group 2 | 1 in 2,330,636 | $2,526,316 | $1.08 |
| Group 3 | 1 in 55,491 | $1,736,842 | $31.30 |
| Group 4 | 1 in 22,197 | $947,368 | $42.68 |
| Group 5 | 1 in 1,083 | $50 | $0.05 |
| Group 6 | 1 in 812 | $25 | $0.03 |
| Group 7 | 1 in 61 | $10 | $0.16 |
| Net Present Value | $76.16 | ||
Initially, this looks like good odds. After all, it appears that a $1 Ordinary Entry is worth $76.16. The catch is that the prize amounts for Groups 1 to 4 are divided equally among all winners of the respective Group.
Because this is the Hong Bao Draw with a $12 million Jackpot, we can expect a higher number of winners than usual. For example, in last year’s Hong Bao Draw, there were 4,517 winning shares in Groups 1 to 4 combined. Here’s how the Net Present Value changes once we put in last year’s Hong Bao Draw prize amounts.
| Odds Of Winning | Prize Value | Odds x Prize Value | |
| Group 1 | 1 in 13,987,816 | $4,209,825 | $0.30 |
| Group 2 | 1 in 2,330,636 | $73,857 | $0.03 |
| Group 3 | 1 in 55,491 | $1,560 | $0.03 |
| Group 4 | 1 in 22,197 | $302 | $0.01 |
| Group 5 | 1 in 1,083 | $50 | $0.05 |
| Group 6 | 1 in 812 | $25 | $0.03 |
| Group 7 | 1 in 61 | $10 | $0.16 |
| Net Present Value | $0.61 | ||
Once you factor in the thousands of other winners, the value of a single Ordinary Entry drops down to $0.61. In other words, for every $1 you spend on TOTO, you’re likely to lose about 40% of it in the Hong Bao Draw.
What Are The Odds Of The Singapore Sweep
Both the $10 and $20 Packs also contain a Singapore Sweep ticket worth $3. Let’s see what the Net Present Value of a Singapore Sweep ticket is.
| Odds Of Winning | Prize Value | Odds x Prize Value | |
| First Prize | 1 in 3,500,000 | $2,300,000 | $0.65 |
| Second Prize | 1 in 3,500,000 | $500,000 | $0.14 |
| Third Prize | 1 in 3,500,000 | $250,000 | $0.07 |
| Jackpot Prize | 1 in 350,000 | $10,000 | $0.03 |
| Lucky Prize | 1 in 350,000 | $5,000 | $0.01 |
| Gift Prize | 1 in 116,667 | $3,000 | $0.02 |
| Consolation Prize | 1 in 116,667 | $2,000 | $0.02 |
| Participation Prize | 1 in 70,000 | $1,000 | $0.01 |
| 2D Delight | 1 in 11 | $6 | $1.83 |
| Net Present Value | $2.80 | ||
Because there are 3.5 million possible winners in The Singapore Sweep, the chances of winning any of the large prizes are astronomically low.
This is why there’s the ultimate consolation prize, which is the “2D Delight”, where 9 sets of winning 2-digit numbers are drawn. If your 7-digit ticket number ends with one of these 9 winning 2-digit numbers, you win $6, and, according to Singapore Pools, your odds of winning this are 1 in 11. This raises the Net Present Value of a Singapore Sweep ticket from $0.97 to $2.80.
In other words, even though the best chance to win some money is via the 2D Delight, the Net Present Value of a Singapore Sweep ticket is still lower than the $3 you spent on it. Effectively, you’re losing money as soon as you buy the ticket.
What Are The Net Present Value Of The $10 And $20 Packs?
As a reminder, the $20 Pack consists of 2 boards of Quick Pick TOTO System 7, 3 boards of Quick Pick TOTO Ordinary, and 1 Singapore Sweep ticket for the upcoming draw. Assuming a Net Present Value of $0.61 per $1 for TOTO and $2.80 per $3 for Singapore Sweep, the total Net Present Value of the $20 Pack is $13.17 or 65% of what you paid.
The $10 Pack consists of just 1 board of Quick Pick TOTO System 7 and 1 Singapore Sweep ticket for the upcoming draw. The total Net Present Value of the $10 Pack is $7.07 or 70% of what you paid.
What these numbers mean is that you can statistically expect to lose about 35% of your money when buying the $20 pack, and almost 30% of your money when buying the $10 pack. The $10 pack, therefore, seems like the better option compared to the $20 pack, though both are statistically losers.
Game Responsibly And Safely
Ultimately, TOTO is gambling and should be done safely and responsibly using money you are comfortable losing. No matter how enticing the jackpot amount, it should never be seen as a get-rich-quick scheme that you “invest” in.
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