The world today is beset with divergent viewpoints, not just on governance but also with greater mistrust of those with opposing views. This polarisation is on full view in the US, where domestic politics often influence international agendas.
As we head into the US Presidential elections on 5 November 2024, sustainability and climate change, including achieving Net Zero by 2050, are certain to be key issues.
For the Republicans, former President Donald Trump will be back on the ballot as he takes on the current Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
Historically, Republican policies have tended to favour industries reliant on fossil fuels, while Democrats have focused on addressing and mitigating climate change.
Given their opposing stance, a potential second term for Donald Trump may significantly impact sustainability efforts within the US and its role in tackling global environmental challenges.
Rolling Back Climate Leadership
We need only reflect on Donald Trump’s first term as US President (from 2017-2021) to understand the potential impact on sustainability efforts if he wins a second term.
A 2021 analysis by the New York Times – using research from Harvard Law School, Columbia Law School, and others – found that President Trump rolled back or reversed around 100 environmental rules during his time in the oval office.
The most notable action was the formal withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement. Although Trump announced the US’s intention to exit the agreement in June 2017, the official withdrawal only took effect in November 2020.
Established in 2015, the Paris Agreement aimed to prevent global temperature rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. It represented a landmark global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and was endorsed by nearly every country, with 195 signatories (with the EU counting as a single entity).
The US’s exit was a significant setback for international climate efforts. Despite trailing China’s overall greenhouse emissions, the US is the world’s largest economy and contributes about 15% of global emissions.
If Trump secures a second term, his track record poses a risk to similar undoing of any efforts made by the US in climate leadership and potentially impeding global efforts to address climate change.
Providing Support For Fossil Fuels
Donald Trump’s support for the fossil fuel industry was evident during his time in office – particularly through actions that favoured traditional energy sources over sustainable alternatives.
For instances, the replaced the Clean Power Plan, introduced by President Obama, with less stringent regulations – reducing pressure on industries to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Under trump’s regulations, the required annual improvement in fuel economy for cars and light trucks was reduced from 5% to just 1.5% for model years 2021 to 2026. That was a blow to decarbonising the transport industry, the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the US.
Trump’s administration also relaxed rules governing methane emissions from oil and gas production on public lands, reporting requirements for methane emissions. While these policies were designed to bolster fossil fuel production, their overall impact might be limited due to broader market trends.
Market forces are increasingly driving the shift towards cleaner energy sources. For example, power generation in the US using coal dropped 25% during Trump’s presidency from 2017 to 2021. This decline can be attributed to the growing cost-efficiency of renewable energy sources – like solar and wind energy.
Overall market momentum may act as a natural counterbalance on the effects of policies favoring fossil fuels, potentially diminishing Trump’s influence on energy transition in the US and the rest of the world.
Reality Of Trump’s Presidency On Global Sustainability
A second-term for Donald Trump in the White House could potentially unwind the landmark Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that President Biden managed to pass. This legislation, including up to US$800 billion in subsidies for green energy projects, will play a crucial role in advancing the US’s transition to renewable energy.
However, it’s worth noting that 70-80% of these subsidies are allocated to “red” or Republican states, which have a vested interest in maintaining these benefits regardless of the president.
While a shift toward a renewable energy economy in the US may be increasingly inevitable, other environmental regulations, such as those governing water pollution, fracking, and toxic substances, could face greater risks under a second Trump administration.
Beyond the practical implications of regulatory rollbacks, the global sentiment towards sustainability could suffer if Trump reverts the US into projecting a pro-fossil fuel stance. Nevertheless, the overall impact might not be as catastrophic as some fear, as the renewable energy momentum gains pace and the economic benefits associated with it could continue to drive the US towards a greener future.
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